This first set is MGM picks in order only - this is what i call the 'Green Bay Packers' model (which i personally support that ANY franchise in ANY sport should do)....PICK THE BEST PLAYER. PERIOD. Then worry about positions and fit later. The one exception would be if you're a team like the Spurs or Heat, in which case odds are you're at the end of the first round anyways. And even then it may not be an exception - both teams have shown skill at incorporating players regardless of 'position.' (Second set will be my predictions for what teams actually do, based on their strategy/system/mindset/personnel/fit).
Thus, in a nutshell, this first list is my 'ranking' of players based on their long-term career expectation. For instance, Jabari Parker will likely win the ROY award, but i believe Wiggins will have a Hall of Fame career. Thus, looking back at this draft in say the year 2025, teams will wish they'd have taken Wiggins or traded up to get him.
1 (Cavs) - Wiggins (Sure-fire hall of famer, even if he pulls a Kobe or Durant for first few years)
2 (Bucks) - Embiid (Most upside of anyone in the draft. If draft was held a month ago he's #1)
3 (Sixers) - Randle (Sure-fire all-star (HOF?) and maybe THE safest pick for 10-15 yr career)
4 (Magic) - Gordon (Best athlete in draft/immediate top tier NBA athlete; worst case he's Marion)
5 (Jazz) - Parker (Dominant in college but less so in NBA, plus he has already gotten fat)
6 (Celtics) - Exum (He might should be #2, due to upside, but its VERY risky, right now he's MCW, and that's a best-case scenario. I actually wanted to put him lower but the reward too high)
7 (Lakers) - Smart (He's a 'winner' and like Randle & Gordon will be your best worker, & tough)
8 (Kings) - Hood (High character, good worker, can shoot lights out, total package, safe pick)
9 (Hornets) - Stauskus (Hood over him is tough, just a 'gut' call, Nik is still improving is scary part)
10 (Sixers) - Payton (He should be either #3-5 or in the 20's, my gut says he's Westbrook 2.0)
10 (Nuggets) - Young (Guaranteed he stays in the league 10+ years, still improving, great kid)
12 (Magic) - Payne (Maybe im getting hoodwinked here but i dont see the downsides to him)
13 (T-wolves) - Harris (So he regressed a bit on shooting, he still has the talent, could be a steal)
14 (Suns) - LaVine (Great athlete, still developing, at this pick # you can gamble on potential)
15 (Hawks) - Ennis (Has huge balls & wants to win, will continue to get better, great floor general)
16 (Bulls) - Saric (Would be a bit higher if he wasn't stuck overseas two years, great player)
17 (Celtics) - Napier (Lebron's endorsement is enough for me. Size means nothing. See: CP3)
18 (Suns) - Hairston (Diamond in the rough, develop him and watch him grow, legit NBA starter)
19 (Bulls) - Warren (Can be great two-way player, overall just a solid pick here, good kid)
20 (Raptors) - Vonleh (Maybe i'm crazy, but to me has bust written all over him, little risk @ #20)
21 (Thunder) - McDaniels (Great athlete & scorer, can be fit into a lineup regardless of position)
22 (Grizzlies) - Adams (Should probably be at 23 with Anderson here, but has much more upside)
23 (Jazz) - Anderson (Legit NBA 6th man, good scorer, versatile, i could put him much higher)
24 (Hornets) - Capela (Everything else's here, just needs a coach to light a fire under his ass)
25 (Rockets) - Grant (Some risky here, but has great upside, also can be molded into defender)
26 (Heat) - Nurkic (Not sure i buy the hype, and limited upside here, but a solid backup center)
27 (Suns) - Robinson III (This is my pick for Tim Hardaway 2.0....late 1st rd pick that pays off big)
28 (Clippers) - McDermott (He's Kyle Korver 2.0, not Dirk or Pierce. Solid role player thats it)
29 (Thunder) - Antetokounmpo (Won't quite be his brother but still much raw, polishable talent)
30 (Spurs) - McGary (Winner who can defend, great role player on successful team, strong guy)
After this i like Early (close call with #29 and #30), Tavares, Dinwiddie, Wilcox, Daniels, and perhaps Patric Young from Florida above all these guys.
The second round is more about fit, and finding guys who you already know you like, much more variation.
Second list...this is what i think the teams will do and who they will select, based on needs, etc.
1 (Cavs) - Parker (GM wants to keep job a few years so he goes safe, unless Gilbert overrules)
2 (Bucks) - Exum (Most theoretical upside, they can wait on him to develop, plus 2015 tanking)
3 (Sixers) - Wiggins (The steal of the draft)
4 (Magic) - Smart (Rob takes Exum here if available, though it's a close call with Smart/Payton)
5 (Jazz) - Randle (Unless they trade Favors or Kanter and take Embiid)
6 (Celtics) - Embiid (Ainge is no dummy, he takes the Hakeem 2.0 potential and develops him)
7 (Lakers) - Vonleh (He's a role player who can replace Pau, they basically go safe here)
8 (Kings) - Payton (If they don't take him he starts sliding back down, gut says I Thomas gone)
9 (Hornets) - Stauskus (It's him or McDermott but i think Rich likes a pure shooter here)
10 (Sixers) - Nurkic (Insurance for Noel)
10 (Nuggets) - Saric (Great stash)
12 (Magic) - Payne (Or Harris here if they take a big @ #4)
13 (T-wolves) - Harris (And he probably busts as a T-wolf)
14 (Suns) - LaVine
15 (Hawks) - Hood
16 (Bulls) - Payne
17 (Celtics) - Young
18 (Suns) - Warren
19 (Bulls) - McDaniels
20 (Raptors) - Napier
21 (Thunder) - Anderson
22 (Grizzlies) - Grant
23 (Jazz) - Adams
24 (Hornets) - Micic
25 (Rockets) - Hairston
26 (Heat) - Capela
27 (Suns) - Stokes
28 (Clippers) - McGary
29 (Thunder) - Tavares
30 (Spurs) - Robinson III
