2014 NBA Draft predictions

This first set is MGM picks in order only - this is what i call the 'Green Bay Packers' model (which i personally support that ANY franchise in ANY sport should do)....PICK THE BEST PLAYER.  PERIOD.  Then worry about positions and fit later.  The one exception would be if you're a team like the Spurs or Heat, in which case odds are you're at the end of the first round anyways.  And even then it may not be an exception - both teams have shown skill at incorporating players regardless of 'position.'  (Second set will be my predictions for what teams actually do, based on their strategy/system/mindset/personnel/fit).

Thus, in a nutshell, this first list is my 'ranking' of players based on their long-term career expectation.  For instance, Jabari Parker will likely win the ROY award, but i believe Wiggins will have a Hall of Fame career.  Thus, looking back at this draft in say the year 2025, teams will wish they'd have taken Wiggins or traded up to get him.

1 (Cavs) - Wiggins    (Sure-fire hall of famer, even if he pulls a Kobe or Durant for first few years)

2 (Bucks) - Embiid     (Most upside of anyone in the draft.  If draft was held a month ago he's #1)

3 (Sixers) - Randle    (Sure-fire all-star (HOF?) and maybe THE safest pick for 10-15 yr career)

4 (Magic) - Gordon    (Best athlete in draft/immediate top tier NBA athlete; worst case he's Marion)

5 (Jazz) - Parker        (Dominant in college but less so in NBA, plus he has already gotten fat)

6 (Celtics) - Exum      (He might should be #2, due to upside, but its VERY risky, right now he's MCW, and that's a best-case scenario.  I actually wanted to put him lower but the reward too high)

7 (Lakers) - Smart     (He's a 'winner' and like Randle & Gordon will be your best worker, & tough)

8 (Kings) - Hood        (High character, good worker, can shoot lights out, total package, safe pick)

9 (Hornets) - Stauskus  (Hood over him is tough, just a 'gut' call, Nik is still improving is scary part)

10 (Sixers) - Payton   (He should be either #3-5 or in the 20's, my gut says he's Westbrook 2.0)

10 (Nuggets) - Young   (Guaranteed he stays in the league 10+ years, still improving, great kid)

12 (Magic) - Payne   (Maybe im getting hoodwinked here but i dont see the downsides to him)

13 (T-wolves) - Harris  (So he regressed a bit on shooting, he still has the talent, could be a steal)

14 (Suns) - LaVine   (Great athlete, still developing, at this pick # you can gamble on potential)

15 (Hawks) - Ennis   (Has huge balls & wants to win, will continue to get better, great floor general)

16 (Bulls) - Saric     (Would be a bit higher if he wasn't stuck overseas two years, great player)

17 (Celtics) - Napier  (Lebron's endorsement is enough for me.  Size means nothing.  See: CP3)

18 (Suns) - Hairston  (Diamond in the rough, develop him and watch him grow, legit NBA starter)

19 (Bulls) - Warren   (Can be great two-way player, overall just a solid pick here, good kid)

20 (Raptors) - Vonleh  (Maybe i'm crazy, but to me has bust written all over him, little risk @ #20)

21 (Thunder) - McDaniels  (Great athlete & scorer, can be fit into a lineup regardless of position)

22 (Grizzlies) - Adams  (Should probably be at 23 with Anderson here, but has much more upside)

23 (Jazz) - Anderson   (Legit NBA 6th man, good scorer, versatile, i could put him much higher)

24 (Hornets) - Capela  (Everything else's here, just needs a coach to light a fire under his ass)

25 (Rockets) - Grant  (Some risky here, but has great upside, also can be molded into defender)

26 (Heat) - Nurkic    (Not sure i buy the hype, and limited upside here, but a solid backup center)

27 (Suns) - Robinson III  (This is my pick for Tim Hardaway 2.0....late 1st rd pick that pays off big)

28 (Clippers) - McDermott  (He's Kyle Korver 2.0, not Dirk or Pierce.  Solid role player thats it)

29 (Thunder) - Antetokounmpo  (Won't quite be his brother but still much raw, polishable talent)

30 (Spurs) - McGary  (Winner who can defend, great role player on successful team, strong guy)

After this i like Early (close call with #29 and #30), Tavares, Dinwiddie, Wilcox, Daniels, and perhaps Patric Young from Florida above all these guys.  

The second round is more about fit, and finding guys who you already know you like, much more variation.

Second list...this is what i think the teams will do and who they will select, based on needs, etc.

1 (Cavs) - Parker     (GM wants to keep job a few years so he goes safe, unless Gilbert overrules)

2 (Bucks) - Exum     (Most theoretical upside, they can wait on him to develop, plus 2015 tanking)

3 (Sixers) - Wiggins    (The steal of the draft)

4 (Magic) - Smart     (Rob takes Exum here if available, though it's a close call with Smart/Payton)

5 (Jazz) - Randle       (Unless they trade Favors or Kanter and take Embiid)

6 (Celtics) - Embiid      (Ainge is no dummy, he takes the Hakeem 2.0 potential and develops him)

7 (Lakers) - Vonleh     (He's a role player who can replace Pau, they basically go safe here)

8 (Kings) - Payton       (If they don't take him he starts sliding back down, gut says I Thomas gone)

9 (Hornets) - Stauskus  (It's him or McDermott but i think Rich likes a pure shooter here)

10 (Sixers) - Nurkic   (Insurance for Noel)

10 (Nuggets) - Saric   (Great stash)

12 (Magic) - Payne   (Or Harris here if they take a big @ #4)

13 (T-wolves) - Harris  (And he probably busts as a T-wolf)

14 (Suns) - LaVine   

15 (Hawks) - Hood   

16 (Bulls) - Payne     

17 (Celtics) - Young 

18 (Suns) - Warren  

19 (Bulls) - McDaniels   

20 (Raptors) - Napier

21 (Thunder) - Anderson

22 (Grizzlies) - Grant

23 (Jazz) - Adams

24 (Hornets) - Micic

25 (Rockets) - Hairston

26 (Heat) - Capela    

27 (Suns) - Stokes

28 (Clippers) - McGary

29 (Thunder) - Tavares

30 (Spurs) - Robinson III

2 year hiatus

so a friend reminded me recently that i used to have a blog.
Honestly i think i'd forgotten.

The latest simple or basic/plain action event or thought that has spurred within me thoughts on a deeper level and/or spiritual contemplation was when a good friend of mine shoved me at a wedding recently.

It was perhaps the first wedding i've been to that i wasn't in, that i had to drive more than 15 minutes to attend, in over five years.  I've been in 18 weddings.

So we're at this wedding, and my friend shoves me out of the way, then i gather myself & ask him what happened, and he points to a spider that i was apparently eye to eye with.  A really big spider.  In a tree.

This incident spurred forth in my mind two thoughts.....first, how spiritually important it is to have friends who will 'shove' or otherwise inflict 'harm' or even pain upon you - for your own good.

And in that way they are being as God intended as He made us in His image...thus this must be derived from God, which informs us that God indeed has our best interests at heart.

Secondly, the interesting thought for me is that i didn't react with anything other than an internalized assumption that the shove must have been for my good.  Because it was from a friend.

I think God wants us to be these kinds of friends to Him.

first glimpse of true beauty in the desert of flashy cars, constant sunshine, and spiritual poverty [i.e. malibu]

the most beautiful woman i have seen in ages was crossing the street today. well i guess she was before i saw her. i saw her on the sidewalk, when leaving the post office. she was about to walk in. she had short, but flowing hair. wavy. brown, i think. i don't remember the color. what i remember was how stately she looked. like a lioness, on the prowl. she was medium build, but she carried herself with a known integrity. she had the look of a queen on a throne. of a woman who knows who she is, whose she is, and what she is. what she's about, what she likes. what her dreams are, but where her feet reside...on the ground. she probably grounds her man, keeps him on the level. but supportive. she looked very supportive.
she did not look particularly in shape, but not obsessive about physical activity, or her appearance, by any means. she looked average in fashion, but not homely. not plain, but--ordinary.

she did not smile when i smiled at her, but she acknolwedged my smile. she was no doubt busy, or that's the way it seemed anyway. she looked 'on a mission,' and yet, relaxed. peaceful, and calm, yet driven. focused. passionate.

it is not even 'her' that was beautiful to me. what happened, methinks, is that God opened my eyes, for a split second, because i didn't see her. my head moved and swiveled, compelling me to look in her direction, and there she was. and in that instant, all these thoughts flashed before my eyes, in a split second. i have only just now been able to unpack them.
why i saw her i'll never completely understand, quite possibly.
but, i understand the main purpose--God wanted to unveil my eyes, to begin to look at the true beauty in life--the way things REALLY are, not the way our world has conditioned us to see them.

for you see, i'd have normally never noticed her, as i am all too easily driven to look at things flashy, or worldly, or tan and trim and cover-model magazine-esque.

for you see, this woman, was in her mid-30's, wearing a dull gray shirt, khaki-capris, and walking smoothly and seemingly unaffected by the abnormal weight distribution in her belly.

for you see, this woman is preganant, and quite obviously so.

too long vacant...

watching Jay leno, and he's hosting Jimmy Smits, and they show a clip of a bad tv show that quotes solomon saying 'my bride, my spouse' and they focus on that line and make fun of it. its ironic to me--no one has any clue that is actually from the Scriptures themselves.

Its funny to me how Hollywood portrays sin as more appealing as it is--less real than it is, and portrays true life as less appealing than it is. This made their love look tame. Song of Solmon. is. not. tame.

worked this summer for a basketball team. it basically is a warrior culture. the entire league. it struck me how much our society is like Rome, we are affluent. we have plenty of necessities and as a result have turned to spectacle to pique our interest. real life, real family, real people, no longer seems to be enough.

does anyone else think Steve Jobs is like an oracle handing magic beans to the naive masses? i swear its like people are getting little gods to worship when i watch his products being unveiled.
i'm not saying there's anything wrong with technology. but our obsession with it may be very, very wrong.

buffet doesn't understand the full capacity of the internet. so he won't invest in it. we should take notice.

much and many ideas have been rolling through my head at a pace so fast ive had to write them down. need to consolidate soon.

so, all you millions of my readers out there, i should be back on the blogging trail soon...

Frozen in Quicksand...

...is how i would describe it. There's a feeling of helplessness, not victimness, but the loss of one's intertia as you feel the dry bits, infinite in their simplicity and numerocity, closing in on you. Yet, the state of mind is cool, solid, opaque, like ice four feet thick in a frozen lake.

This is the state of my soul, it would seem. My heart got a jumpstart this year, as the mummified tape was unwrapped from the deepest wounds, deep in my core, which ironically in freedom corresponded to my mental bondage to the drudgery that is law school.

The juxtaposition is a perpetual theme, it seems, and appropriate. The soul and heart can be separate, though, and my soul seems to be on hiatus. I'm still trying to catch up to it, and when i do, that's how it feels.

the wisdom of the homeless man

there is a girl that i have become, peculiarly, friends with from across the country, over the past year. she has a wonderful way about her of viewing all people on equal footing under God's umbrella of love and provision, and one of her comments has stuck with me since a phone conversation we had in october or so, when she spoke passionately about God loving her no less or no more not only than the most famous or rich person--but also with the same love which He extends to a random homeless guy, on the street.

this hit me--that subtle spirit of entitlement, of feeling elitist and better than others has crept into my seemingly perpetually wicked heart. it doesn't creep in with bold statements of belief or facts. oh, no, it seeps in like soapy water under the bathroom door, slowly polluting the carpet of my life with implicit affirmations of somehow deserving my position in life, my opportunities, my possessions or talents. my my my....how putrid! my selfish americanized insecure greed has become clear to me.

and startlingly clear, the other day, when stopping off pch, just outside santa monica, at a gas station. the funny thing is, i almost did not stop. but, something [or Someone?] compelled me to do so, so i did, and then, i got mad when the light was red. how juvenile of me. so i'm frustratedly waiting at the light, and i up and look to my left, and see--a homeless guy.

this is what hit me: the lie he's believing about his life, when boiled down to its root, is that he is powerless and must accept his plight. the root of the lie is that he can do nothing, is impotent, to alter his situation and/or lot in life.

for the record, let me say that this is just as dangerous as the lie that says that we control everything, we we we. in the generation of hollywood romances and million dollar 401k's and blissful retirements and pristine educations for all, we have accepted that lie as well.

however, this one is similarly dangerous. and in that moment, as i spaced out in thought [and suddenly couldn't care less if the light stayed red for 20 more minutes], i realized this is what i'd been believing, too! i've been feeling constrained, that nothing will change the struggles i'm facing in life and have been bogged down in, when the truth of the matter is that we are given struggles because why? for exactly the same reason as Alfred tells Batman....why do we fall? so we can get back up. same as the d-wade commercial--fall 7 times, get up 8.

its going to happen. it's a BLESSING in that it is a situation that shows us we are capable of getting up, being strong, and persevering. which leads to hope, to proven character.

and next time, because i'm running out of mental energy and time, i'll have to tell the story of the red pen and golf ball that i lost 2000 miles apart and somehow found, unexpectedly and in an extremely surreal moment, either exact copies of or the actual things themselves, in Malibu, multiple years later. probably the weirdest thing that has ever happened to me in my life.

the importance of desert

i set a resolution to visit joshua tree national park this semester. somehow, it never materialized. well, i know how it didn't. life happened. other things happened that put my focus swiveling toward contemplating leaving mid-semester, or even earlier, and regulated doing my usual coordinator of all things social role to the back burner. which, i am finding, leaves me feeling like a fish out of water. i feel as if i'm the actor with no costume, or at least, one with a gaping hole in it that everyone can see but me.

the semester's not over yet, although i don't think i'll be at joshua tree until later this year. we never know what's around the next bend, however.

something i've been thinking about lately is how often we take an americanized view toward spiritual growth and nourishment. what i mean is, we automatically assume that there is an idealistic, 3-course-meal-esque normalized way of looking at what we 'need.' this was not how Jesus taught. he had a woman touch him who merely touched Him and was healed. His very words spoken across distances brought the power of life. He spoke of mustard seeds equitable with mountains. what is the economy of scale in the kingdom of heaven? there isn't one.

instead, faith is faith. the amount does not matter. it is a matter of quality, of substance, not of degree, or size. similarly, we wouldn't go over to africa and hand a starving child a giant steak, would we? no, we would start with water. maybe some wafers or bread. perhaps this is part of the imagery with the breaking and passing of bread--small pieces go a long way. what i mean is, or at least--what i've been thinking about is--how often do we treat spiritual truths and nourishment for others and ourselves as a 'one size fits all' super value meal?

instead, we should look at the whole person, look in the mirror, and seek the appropriate amount of spiritual nourishment. if its His truth, His word being taught/shared correctly, or true prayer--then the amount of time/length of words, etc. doesn't matter. it will bring true sustenance and in turn, growth.

but that takes patience. and faith.

i think that's why we don't do it. america is all about getting everything NOW. i haven't been able to get the beginning of psalms out of my head for a while now--the image is of a tree, by a stream. trees grow when planted by a stream...SLOWLY. it takes YEARS.

why do i expect things in my life to happen so quickly?!

silly rabbit. and my floppy ears probably make me look as goofy as i feel right about now.

desert times are essential. when dry and needy, we hear His voice clearly. we understand the ultimate futility of earthly life, accomplishments, and what we really will take from this life.

i don't want to say i've stopped looking for certain things in life [namely, romantic love], but well, i've ceased throwing wasted time and energy toward things that He does not seem to be cultivating in my life. the biggest ones of these are an excess of friendships, and my computer, and emphasizing working out.

well, that's probably convoluted or cryptic or both, but my point is--there is a difference between long term investing, and by faith investing where He commands, and simply wasting time, energy, and resources. when you stop and think about it--look around you sometime and ask yourself, where will all these components of my life be in 5 years, 10 years...50?

the simplest answer is that He is the only constant in our lives. there are other probabilities, but insofar as they are far from Him, so will our treasure, and therefore, our hearts, be far from Him as well. and if our endeavors are close to Him, then our hearts will be ever blest and joy-filled with His true satiating life, of which our thirsts die in satiation, never despairing no matter how dry the desert through which our paths may lead us still onward....